Trump Cools on USMCA Trade Pact He Negotiated

The USMCA's mandatory renewal deadline passed this week without a fresh long term agreement, as the Trump administration declined to extend the trade pact in its current form and pushed Canada and Mexico back to the negotiating table instead.

What Happened at the Deadline

Representatives from the United States, Mexico and Canada held virtual talks as the statutory review date arrived, and Washington made clear it would not simply reup the deal for another sixteen years. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said in a statement that the United States would keep engaging with Mexico and Canada to address what he called the agreement's shortcomings and the trade deficits it runs with both countries. Because the US did not agree to renew the pact as written, Greer said, the USMCA is not renewed.

A senior administration official told reporters on a call that the pact has already been, in the official's words, subordinated to some degree by the president's separate tariff actions. That framing suggests the White House views USMCA less as the central mechanism governing North American trade and more as one instrument among several, alongside tariffs imposed under other authorities.

Diverging Positions Among the Three Governments

Mexico had pushed for the agreement to be renewed on schedule, while the US administration favored prolonging talks. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney signaled resignation rather than urgency ahead of the deadline, telling reporters he was not looking for his pen. Trump himself has been openly skeptical of the pact he negotiated during his first term, saying last month that he is not a big fan of it and would rather not have the agreement at all, though he added he might still sign something eventually.

Sectors Likely to Dominate Future Talks

The senior administration official said Trump's primary concern remains the size of US trade deficits with its two neighbors. But the substantive negotiations ahead could range well beyond that headline issue. Automakers in Canada and Mexico, along with the companies themselves, are pressing for lower duties on vehicles. Washington, meanwhile, is expected to focus on sectors where it runs surpluses, including aerospace and food products, areas where US negotiators have leverage to seek concessions of their own.

The Calendar Ahead

Greer has scheduled another round of talks with Mexican officials in Mexico City later this month, following a June 15 to 17 meeting in Washington that produced only a noncommittal joint statement noting the two sides had advanced discussions. No direct talks with Canada are currently on the calendar, leaving that relationship in a more uncertain position. Under the terms of the pact, USMCA now enters a period of annual reviews and, absent a new agreement, would expire fully on July 1, 2036.

How Long Does This Uncertainty Last

The zero tariff treatment covering millions of goods traded among the three countries remains technically intact for now, but the absence of a renewed long term commitment leaves businesses planning years out with less certainty than the original 2020 deal provided. Whether Mexico's more active talks with Washington produce results faster than the stalled Canadian track, and whether annual reviews become a venue for real changes or simply a formality, are questions the three governments have yet to answer.